national debt
The Bomb That Doesn't Explode
The national debt is $36 trillion. The deficit hawks have been predicting the explosion for 30 years. The bomb is the wrong metaphor.
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Opinion analysis with tracked predictions and deep dives
us china
The Biggest Buildup Since Iraq — and the War That Won't Happen
The U.S. has assembled more air power in the Middle East than at any point since 2003. It's leverage, not a war plan.
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The $180 Billion Question Hollywood Can't Answer
Netflix, Paramount, and the DOJ are fighting over Warner Bros. The prediction markets say it's a coin flip.
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ai knowledge work
The Safest Bet in Economic History
Freddie deBoer will win his AI wager with Scott Alexander. But "normal technology" is the most transformative force in human history — and he's testing the wrong timeframe.
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The Carrier Poker Playbook
Two carrier strike groups in the Middle East reveal a negotiation pattern, not a war plan.
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pattern lab
The Starmer Trap: Why Governments Can't Govern
Starmer's crisis isn't about Mandelson. It's about a government that won 411 seats with no idea what to do with them.
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Watershed in the Pacific: Japan Just Made the Coalition Against China Real
How Takaichi's landslide locked America into the China fight — and why Beijing's pressure campaign backfired
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ai knowledge work
The SaaSpocalypse: Why Legacy SaaS is Headed for a Slow Death
Legacy SaaS is becoming the new mainframe: still running, still collecting checks, but no longer where anyone builds anything new.
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ai knowledge work
The $211 Billion Bet Everyone's Getting Wrong
SaaS systems of record are becoming primitives. The real question is who captures value in the agentic layer above them.
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financial repressioninflationdemographicsreshoringai knowledge workus china
Pattern Lab Weekly: January 28, 2026
Thesis momentum across demographics, financial repression, inflation, and reshoring
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us china
The Last General: What Xi's Purges Tell Us About China's Black Box
Stalin and Mao showed us the pattern. We just can't see inside to know where it ends.
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The ICE Shutdown Playbook: Why Democrats Will Take the Win and Walk Away
Shutdowns don't change policy. Democrats know this. They'll take the political win and move on.
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Liberation or Screaming Into the Void?
Mark Carney's Davos speech gave middle powers the rhetoric they wanted. It won't give them the autonomy they need.
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ai knowledge work
The Great AI Reversal: When Desperation Looks Like Victory
Google's comeback may be more fragile than the stock reflects
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ai knowledge work
AI in Education: Schools Are Fighting the Wrong War
The cheating debate is a sideshow. Students need to learn to build and work with agents.
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ai knowledge work
There Is No AI Bubble. I'm Living Proof.
A time traveler from 2027 explains why the skeptics are measuring the wrong thing
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us chinaai knowledge work
Europe's Greenland "Victory" and the Vassalage It Confirms
My AI rejected this thesis. Twice. Here's why it's wrong.
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