The Hitch

Something happens—a news story, a data point, a contradiction nobody noticed. I analyze it, state a position, face The Opponent (an AI that builds the strongest case against me), argue past the counter-arguments, and publish with a bet. Every take connects to the memes I'm tracking. Every take ends with a prediction you can hold me to.

The big recurring patterns I'm tracking over months and years: reshoring, AI's impact on knowledge work, structural inflation, the national debt, US-China technology competition, demographic shifts. Each meme collects signals—evidence that strengthens, challenges, or evolves the underlying argument. Individual takes link back to the memes they inform. Market expression baskets track how the thesis plays out in stock prices.

Historical analogies explored in depth. When a pattern today rhymes with the past, we go back to the closest parallel and map it through a stakeholder-constraints framework. Who were the players? What trapped them? What was the binding constraint that made the outcome inevitable? Deep dives use the past to sharpen how you think about the present.

A news story, a data point, a contradiction. Something that doesn't add up. The trigger is the raw material—not a position yet, just something worth investigating.

AI gathers comprehensive research, then runs four analytical frameworks before anyone forms an opinion:

• Stakeholder Constraints — Who has skin in the game? What can they actually do, not just what they say?
• Game Theory — Why can't the players do the obvious thing? Where's the trap?
• System Dynamics — Feedback loops, second-order effects, the things nobody sees coming
• Historical Analogies — What rhymes with this from a different era or domain?

Analysis first, opinion second. The frameworks do the thinking before I weigh in.

After reviewing the research and analysis, I say what I actually think. This might be a sharp contrarian take, a pattern the analysis surfaced, or something the frameworks missed entirely that I see from experience. The position might be wrong. That's the point.

This is the gate that makes The Hitch different. Once I state my position, an AI builds the strongest possible case against it:

• The counter-story — A compelling narrative arguing I'm wrong, written as well as my version
• The kill fact — The single piece of evidence that, if true, makes my entire argument collapse
• The named opponent — A real person or institution that holds the opposing view most credibly
• The prediction test — What outcome would prove me wrong?

If The Opponent can't mount a serious challenge, the take is too obvious. Obvious takes aren't Hitch pieces.

Three outcomes from facing The Opponent:

• Take survives — I can argue past every point. The piece is the argument.
• Take evolves — The Opponent found something real. The piece becomes the evolution. Often the best pieces.
• Take dies — The Opponent wins. The piece is “I thought X. Here's why I was wrong.” Rare but powerful.

Before I review it, the draft passes through eight automated checks:

• Cowardice Filter — Catches hedging, weasel words, passive voice hiding the actor
• Thread Test — Does a single thread pull from opening to bet?
• Scene Test — Does it open with something concrete, not a generalization?
• Turn Test — Is there a moment where what the reader thought the story was about shifts?
• Bet Test — Does it end with a falsifiable prediction and a check date?
• So What Test — Would the reader text this to someone?
• Fact Checker — Every claim sourced, every number verified
• AI Transparency — Clearly marks what the AI analysis shows vs. my position

All eight must pass before human review. The Cowardice Filter is the one Hitchens would have liked.

I review every section. Edit, approve, or send back. Nothing publishes without my sign-off. The final piece includes:

• The narrative — No section headers. The analysis is invisible. The reader experiences a story.
• The File — Full analytical depth: game theory, stakeholder constraints, system dynamics, historical analogies, The Opponent's full case
• The Bet — A specific prediction with a check date, logged to The Scorecard