Shutdowns don't change policy. Democrats know this. They'll take the political win and move on.
The Minneapolis shooting came just days before what would have been a rare Congressional victory. After years of governing by continuing resolution and shutdown brinksmanship, both chambers were finally poised to pass actual appropriations bills. Then a federal agent shot a protestor, and the fragile deal collapsed.
Now the question isn't whether the government shuts down—prediction markets put that at 79%—but how long Democrats will let it stay closed before taking their win and walking away.
Trump's immigration approval has cratered to 39%, down from 50% in February. Fifty-eight percent of Americans now say ICE has "gone too far." The agency's net approval has dropped 30 points since inauguration. Immigration was Trump's best issue coming into his second term. It's not anymore.
But good polling doesn't mean Democrats will get what they want. Government shutdowns follow a predictable pattern: the side trying to change the status quo loses. Gingrich couldn't force Clinton to cut spending. Republicans couldn't defund Obamacare. Trump couldn't get his border wall. Democrats couldn't restore ACA subsidies last fall. And Democrats won't meaningfully restrict ICE now.
| Shutdown | Days | Who Sought Change | Policy Result | Political Damage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995-96 | 21 | GOP (cut spending) | Failed | GOP |
| 2013 | 16 | GOP (defund Obamacare) | Failed | GOP |
| 2018-19 | 35 | Trump (border wall) | Failed | Trump |
| 2025 | 43 | Dems (ACA subsidies) | Failed | GOP |
The Fall 2025 shutdown is the most instructive. Democrats held firm for 43 days, caved on policy, got a meaningless "promise of a vote" - but Republicans absorbed the political damage heading into this year's midterms. The same dynamic is setting up now.
Democrats don't need to win on policy. They won't get meaningful ICE restrictions no matter how long the government stays closed. What they need is to cement the narrative - "Trump's ICE is out of control" - and carry that into November.
The optimal play: extend the standoff long enough to maximize headlines (a week, give or take), then accept whatever symbolic off-ramp Republicans offer. Most likely that's a third-party investigation into ICE shootings - something Democrats can claim as "forced accountability" while costing Trump nothing operationally.
A longer shutdown risks letting Trump change the narrative. The news cycle will move on, and a prolonged holdout starts to look less like principled stand and more like political theater. Democrats saw this in 2025 - 43 days was long enough to take the political win, but the policy loss was still a policy loss.
Prediction markets currently show 79% odds of a shutdown happening but haven't opened contracts on duration. If they did, the smart money might be on shorter than people expect.
The Dem vulnerability is their own left flank. "Abolish ICE" has surged from 20% support in August 2024 to 42% today - but it's still underwater with the general public and only has plurality support among independents. Seventy-seven percent of Democrats support abolishing ICE, but only 47% of independents do.
If the progressive wing gets too loud, or worse, if there's a viral incident of protestors clearly in the wrong, Republicans get their "both sides" narrative and the clean polling advantage evaporates.
The signal that changes everything: another incident. Another ICE shooting extends this indefinitely and emboldens Democrats to push harder. A protestor attack on ICE agents flips the narrative and gives Republicans cover.
Absent that wildcard, expect a 7-day shutdown, a face-saving investigation commission, and both sides declaring victory while nothing actually changes.
Democrats have the polling lead and they know it. They'll take the political win, cave on policy, and call it accountability. Same as it ever was.