The US-China relationship is the structural fault line running under every major geopolitical and economic trend of the next decade. Trade, technology, military posture, and alliance systems are all being reshaped by this competition.
The U.S. conducts no sustained military campaign against Iran through 2026. There may be isolated strikes but no weeks-long air war, no regime-targeting campaign, no all-out assault.
Japan defense spending stays at or above 2% GDP — no plateau or decline
Takaichi maintains explicit Taiwan defense commitment through 2026
Takaichi remains Prime Minister through 2026
Trump's pressure tactics will continue to be more effective at changing EU behavior than previous diplomatic approaches